Christmas table chat with Gulnara

In this chat Gulnara and I talk some scenarios for the year ahead - channelling our inner Larry Summers. Note: This is not a forecast, and isn’t what we expect will happen - we are just having fun picturing a relatively extreme scenario and how it will play out.

For the image, blame ChatGPT for the extra n in economics, and the fact that the people don’t look like us. But it’ll do as its better than the stick people I’d draw myself.

Merry Christmas!

Mentioned links:

Cato - Anatomy of China’s Housing Crisis: Ending Financial Repression

Liberty Street blog on Chinese households.

OECD household saving.

FT article on Chinese household savings.

Australian Terms of Trade.

Australia-USD Long-term exchange rate.